This year kicks off with macro markets bang in the middle of a difficult transition phase. Positive price action in fixed income markets and stocks in October and November last year could be interpreted as the market front running a more benign outlook for macro data and central bank policy. But after the final round of major central bank meetings in December, our fear is that the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the ECB have other ideas and are not yet ready to sanction any kind of pivot. It would need inflation and economic activity indicators to continue to weaken. As we move into this new phase, we have identified seven key macro market themes for 2023.
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