Global Investment Outlook

Spring 2025

Regional outlook

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Executive summary

Uncertainty abounds as the trade war threatens economic growth, complicates the outlook on inflation, and stokes financial-market volatility, causing investors to weigh a wide range of possible outcomes. In this environment, stocks are under pressure as investors shun expensive U.S. large-cap growth stocks in favour of those with more reasonable valuations.

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One-minute market update

Economy

The heightened activity and lack of clarity around U.S. policy threatens to temporarily slow economic growth as businesses and households opt to delay key decisions.

Fixed income

The key threat to fixed income investors would be an upside surprise to inflation caused by unfavourable trade policies, but that upward pressure could be offset by weaker growth conditions.

Equity markets

Our return estimates range from mid- to high-single digit returns over the year ahead depending on the region, but large error bands exist around our central forecasts.