Global Investment Outlook

Summer 2025

Regional outlook

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Executive summary

Uncertainty around U.S. tariffs remains, but the worst-case scenario has largely been ruled out as progress toward trade deals is being made. In our base case scenario, economic growth should slow, but not stop, and any rise in inflation should prove temporary. Stocks can perform well against this backdrop if policy, earnings and investor sentiment cooperate, and bonds offer decent return potential with only moderate valuation risk.

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One-minute market update

Economy

Next year should be somewhat better with the worst of the tariff adjustment complete and U.S. tax cuts acting as a tailwind.

Fixed income

Central banks are proceeding with caution as they weigh U.S. policy uncertainty and competing priorities of economic weakness and inflation strength calling for opposite action.

Equity markets

The tariffs sparked an intense sell-off that pushed many technical and sentiment indicators to extremes and shifted leadership away from U.S. stocks.

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