David Lambert, premier directeur général, premier gestionnaire de portefeuille et chef, Actions européennes, RBC Global Asset Management (UK) Limited, présente un récapitulatif du marché en 2025 pour cette catégorie d’actif partage ses perspectives pour 2026.
Les actions européennes ont dégagé un rendement positif en 2025 ». Elles ont offert de solides gains en Espagne et en Italie, tirant parti du plan de relance budgétaire allemand qui a stimulé les actions domestiques au premier trimestre.
Ce que nous n’avons pas observé de façon constante en Europe ces dernières années, c’est une croissance des bénéfices. Toutefois, avec la mise en œuvre du plan de relance budgétaire allemand axé sur les infrastructures et la défense, nous anticipons un impact positif sur la croissance des bénéfices domestiques au sein de l’Europe.
Les banques européennes constituent toujours le plus grand secteur en Europe. Elles offrent des valorisations attrayantes et de solides distributions aux actionnaires, et bénéficier de la croissance émergente des prêts.
Les valorisations actuelles suggèrent des attentes de croissance à long terme très faibles (0 à 1 %). Par conséquent, même une amélioration modeste des bénéfices pourrait entraîner une augmentation significative des rendements.
(en anglais seulement)
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How would you summarize 2025 in European Equities?
David Lambert
2025 was a really interesting year for European equities, and they ended up very positive over the course of the year. We're up 25% in U.S. dollar terms, but there were individual markets within Europe, like Spain, which was up 50% on U.S. dollar terms, and Italy was up 40% in U.S. dollar terms. They were really, really strong. Now, a lot of this was driven from the first quarter, where we got the German fiscal plan coming out, and that gave European domestic stocks, in particular, a real boost. Now, through the middle part of the year, we flatlined and have now started to move up again as we move into the latter part of the year. So all in all, it's been a very positive year for European equities.
What is your outlook for European Equities in 2026?
David Lambert
Coming into 2026, I think the setup's really interesting for European equities. I haven't really been able to say that for many years. The valuation levels are still very low compared to somewhere like the U.S. Although versus the 20-year median, we're slightly above where we have been. But what is quite interesting is the earnings dynamic coming through. What we haven't really seen in Europe consistently over the last number of years is earnings growth. Now, with the German fiscal stimulus plan on infrastructure and defense starting to come through, we expect this to have a positive impact on domestic earnings growth within Europe itself.
Now, if we think of Europe as earnings coming from domestic Europe, the U.S., and emerging markets, whereas the U.S. and emerging markets have really held up earnings for Europe in aggregate over the last number of years, European domestic earnings have lagged. Now, if we start to see this come through positively, then as a whole, European earnings should start to improve. Now we're seeing that in consensus numbers going into next year, we're looking for even 13%, 14% earnings growth across Europe. This, built on the valuation levels we currently have, is quite an attractive setup.
Within Europe itself, European banks, which is the largest sector, still on very attractive valuations. They have clean balance sheets, strong shareholder distributions, and actually, we're seeing loan growth coming through within Europe, which again is a positive setup for Europe's largest sector. When we look at Europe as a whole on aggregate, and we look at the valuations and what's baked in from a growth perspective is fairly low. So, if we reverse engineer what growth into perpetuity is baked into current valuations, we're looking at 0 to 1% growth. Whereas we look at other regions in the world, we're looking at 3 to 4% growth. Now, if we expect that 0 to 1% to improve even slightly, then that can ultimately have a big kicker on valuations and total returns that shareholders could expect from European equities.
Video recorded on November 21, 2025