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• Canada

  Canada's latest budget unveiled fiscal stimulus and a push for more infrastructure and capital investments. S&P/TSX consensus earnings estimates have been raised for 2026 to 15%. Profit growth is expected to come from the Financials, Industrials and Materials sectors.

• United States

  For 2026, expectations are for earnings growth of approximately 14%, driven by both wider profit margins and revenue growth. The backdrop of solid earnings growth, AI investment and policy focus on consumers should continue to support U.S. equities, punctuated by periods of volatility.

• Europe

  For investors seeking diversification from concentrated AI exposure and positioning for global economic acceleration, European equities offer an attractive alternative if the earnings recovery gains momentum and valuations begin to reflect improving fundamentals.

• Asia

  Overall, we expect Asia's economy, while solid, to slow slightly in 2026 as softer global trade has the potential to weigh on exports. However, domestic demand remains strong amid monetary-policy easing. Inflation remains mostly contained, granting central banks the leeway to make interest-rate cuts where required.

• Emerging markets

  Prolonged weakness in the U.S. dollar would support further emerging-market outperformance and provide emerging-market central banks with opportunities to ease monetary policy.

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Our base case is for modest economic growth and inflation calm enough to allow for a resumption of interest-rate cuts. In this environment, we expect decent returns from bonds and even better performance from stocks, especially in regions outside North America where valuations are relatively appealing.

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Economy

Next year should be somewhat better with the worst of the tariff adjustment complete and U.S. tax cuts acting as a tailwind.

Fixed income

Central banks are proceeding with caution as they weigh U.S. policy uncertainty and competing priorities of economic weakness and inflation strength calling for opposite action.

Equity markets

The tariffs sparked an intense sell-off that pushed many technical and sentiment indicators to extremes and shifted leadership away from U.S. stocks.

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Resources

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