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The war in Iran has injected significant uncertainty into the outlook and widened the range of potential outcomes for the economy and financial markets. While risks have intensified, our base case scenario still sees the economy continuing to grow amid a variety of existing tailwinds, allowing stocks to outperform bonds, particularly in non-U.S. regions where valuations are relatively appealing.

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Economy

The economic backdrop remains surprisingly resilient despite the energy shock, with economic data in both the U.S. and the G10 better than it was a year ago.

Fixed income

We forecast low-to-mid single-digit returns for government bonds, with the potential to earn higher returns in corporate bonds, though the added compensation for taking credit risk is historically small.

Equity markets

Following the strong gains of the past quarter, stocks are pricing in an optimistic scenario, assuming that the supportive macro backdrop and rapidly growing profits persist.

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Resources

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