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Global economies are rebounding nicely following last year’s recession and our assessment is that we are at the early stage of a new business cycle. Interest rates remain low, unemployment is elevated but improving, and the economy is being supported by massive fiscal stimulus with potentially more on the horizon. All things considered, we think the economic expansion has further room to run, possibly for several years. The coronavirus remains a key challenge to our outlook, with new variants spreading rapidly and case counts rising in many regions of the world. However, progress on vaccinations should ultimately curb the spread of the virus and the economic hit from COVID-19 is unlikely to be severe given the economy’s impressive resilience during the pandemic. We look for the world’s major economies to grow between 4% and 8% in real terms in 2021 followed by slightly slower, but still strong, growth rates in 2022. Our own growth forecasts remain above the consensus, but slightly less so than before because the consensus has moved higher.
