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Emerging markets had a tough 2022, shaped by rising interest rates in the US, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the decimation of the real estate sector in China. Investors were left with the question; does it still pay to invest in EM? In our view, we are starting to notice some early hints of potential stabilising and 2023 should prove to be more prosperous, with some of the major clouds on the horizon lifting gradually.
In our Emerging Market Debt outlook for 2023, we explore:
The effect of higher US interest rates on default rates, from a sovereign and corporate credit perspective.
The impact of moves in commodity prices on the market beta.
China’s investment prospects following the real estate sector policy mistakes.
Whether we will see an end to the war in Ukraine in 2023, and how political developments in the US will figure in the outcome.
Likely ESG trends, and how these will impact market behaviour.
Strategies we recommend for investors looking for EMD allocations in 2023.
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This document was prepared by BlueBay Asset Management LLP (BlueBay), which is authorized and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and is registered as an investment adviser with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and as a commodity pool operator and commodity trading advisor with the National Futures Association (NFA) as authorized by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
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