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by  BlueBay Fixed Income teamA.Skiba, CFA Jan 25, 2024

Investors have plenty to worry about at the start of any new year, and 2024 is no exception:

Will returns meet expectations? Is growth sustainable? Will central banks cut rates? Or raise them? How will elections affect people and policy makers? There are always risks and surprises, but the geopolitical landscape is increasingly complex, as bad actors can upset economic and market assumptions globally with one action.

2023 was an exciting year for both fixed income and the broader markets culminating with an impressive “everything” rally to cap things off, but opportunities still exist for thoughtful investors. Markets may have got ahead of themselves as we end the year, which is why we believe that going into 2024, there is plenty of potential for volatility to re-emerge. However, our base-case is for a soft-landing in the US, gradually falling inflation and a Fed that starts cutting rates in the second half of the year.

Watch time: 42 minutes, 51 seconds

View transcript

Hello and welcome. I'm Crystal McClenthen, Head of US Products at RBC Global Asset Management. Thank you for joining our webcast, “Focus on Fixed Income: What to Watch in 2024”. We hope you find today's discussion insightful as our panel of investment experts share insights into opportunities and possible risks that may shape the US Fixed Income market for 2024. For more thought leadership on this topic, visit rbcgam.com or click on the right side of your screen.

Before I introduce today's speakers, a bit of housekeeping. If you have questions or comments throughout today's discussion, please submit those using the functionality on your screen. We'll do our best to weave them into our discussion. We encourage questions as it will make our discussion even better, so thank you in advance.

RBC Global Asset Management is a firm of specialized investment teams with over $430 billion in assets under management as of December 31, 2023. Our BlueBay Fixed Income platform seeks to embody the best aspects of alternative and traditional Fixed Income investing globally. In addition, here at RBC, we also offer broad-based capabilities in equities, liquidity management, and alternatives.

Today, I am joined by three members of our BlueBay Fixed Income team: Andrzej Skiba, BlueBay's Head of US Fixed Income; Tim Leary, BlueBay's Senior Portfolio Manager and Leader within our US High Yield team; and Brian Svendahl, BlueBay's Senior Portfolio Manager and Leader within our mortgage and impact investing strategies.

Thank you, gentlemen. We appreciate you taking the time today and look forward to hearing your insights.

While overall we saw volatility in the market in 2023, the fourth quarter provided a rally, including within Fixed Income driven by cooling inflation, a sense that the Fed rate hikes were ending, a positive outlook for labor markets and consumer spending, changing the opinions of many for prospects for a recession and some expressing the view of a potential soft landing.

Andrzej, let's start with you first. What are the team's expectations of the Fixed Income market in 2024 and macro themes under consideration?

Well, hello, Crystal, and everyone who joined this call. We do expect another year of strong total returns within Fixed Income. Investors were bruised in 2022 and last year we've only partially recovered the losses that were accrued in 2022. And in our opinion, there is a strong likelihood that we will further recover in 2024 with potentially even double-digit returns across multiple segments of the Fixed Income universe.

When we're looking at that expectation, this assumes a couple of things. It assumes that the US will avoid a recession. We might experience something akin to a recession within the manufacturing space. However, we do believe that the consumer is strong enough to keep the overall US economy on the side of growth, albeit a slower one. We also assume that inflation continues to moderate, and the Federal Reserve can start cutting rates later this year. It was our opinion that the market had gotten a bit ahead of itself towards the back end of last year, pricing in 150 basis points of rate cuts in 2024 and assuming that those rate cuts would start in March. In our opinion, we will see a bit less in terms of cuts and those cuts starting later.

However, in the big scheme of things, that should still ensure a constructive environment for Fixed Income investors and continued re-engagement with the asset class.

Thank you, Andrzej. As an investor, I'm very excited to hear that. So, as we look across the broad spectrum of Fixed Income, what are you excited about and how will investors be rewarded with these double-digit returns?

Look, from our perspective, there are two areas of focus for investors and things that we're excited about. The first one is moving further out the duration curve. In recent years, as investors were very cautious, there was a lot of focus on short-duration securities, money market investments, and less so further out the duration curve. So, now as rate cuts are on the horizon, and we have a bit more clarity about Fed policy and the economy as a whole, we do believe that investors are encouraged to move further out the duration curve across multiple manifestations of that within Fixed Income.

The other thing that we would like to highlight is that while generic spread opportunities across many of our asset classes do not look especially enticing by historical standards, we do see plenty of pockets of value that should allow for an active manager to generate meaningful alpha, exceeding what passive solutions could offer. So, we do look at the Fixed Income opportunity set as particularly fertile for active managers over the quarters to come.

That's great. Now, as we dive further into specific sub-asset classes within Fixed Income, what's your outlook as it relates to investment grade?

Well, investment grade is in good shape. I think a lot of investors who are concerned about the economic slowdown were comforted by the fact that a lot of rating downgrades that could have happened already occurred during the COVID crisis in 2020. So, actually in a very unusual situation, we have an economic slowdown ahead, and yet more companies were upgraded than downgraded over the last 12 months within investment-grade space in the US. And that speaks of the strength of the balance sheets and that also speaks of how conservative management teams have been in the aftermath of COVID, where the memories of dysfunctional markets, of challenging financing conditions were still quite raw. So, now we're actually benefiting from that relative strength of the balance sheets as we move into a potential slowdown in 2024.

And in our conversations with a lot of investors, they do find the prospect of investing within investment grade one of the easier decisions to be made across the Fixed Income spectrum because you are less worried about the credit cycle here. You are more concerned about monetary policy and whether what the Fed will be doing will be conducive to investment-grade markets and allow investors to generate a carry beyond that of the government bond space and also benefit from pockets of value that we see across that universe. So, we do see broad re-engaging of investors with investment grade that is aided by active issuance within the space. We are already running ahead of the pace of last year month-to-date in terms of record supply in 2024, but what we are seeing is that that supply is being absorbed very well. Even though it's well telegraphed and investors were initially concerned about the sheer volume, pretty much every single deal is being snapped up because you have a greater and greater amount of allocators fearing that they might miss out an opportunity to lock in current yields that are on offer within investment grade before the rate cuts ensue.

Thank you for that. One more before we turn it to our next panelist, as a question just came across, which I think you would be able to help us with, specifically around that duration curve. The question relates to, “Is it too early to enter long-term treasuries, i.e. 20 years plus for capital appreciation purposes, not necessarily for the yield purpose?”

What's your thoughts there, Andrzej?

From our perspective, we see most of the value in the belly of the curve and all the way to the 10-year point. We do think that for those investors that want to position for the rate cuts ahead, those look particularly interesting. You would argue that the value of investing in say 20 or 30-year government bonds would be closely correlated with the extent of the slowdown, and the sharper the slowdown of the economy, the better safety you can find in that corner of the market, and also you can actually generate outsized capital gains. But given that our view is for a slowdown and not a particularly aggressive one in the US, given the share of the consumer within the US economy, we actually prefer the belly of the curve up to the 10-year point in terms of current valuations.

That's very helpful. Thank you, Andrzej.

Brian, with the volatility in rates, and as we talk about our favorite parts of the curve for the other spaces, I want to turn it to you. A lot of conversations around mortgage-backed securities space and what are your thoughts heading into 2024 specifically for mortgage-backed securities?

I would start with the consumer. The consumer is starting the year in a really strong position. Unemployment is still low. Savings are back to normal levels. Equity valuations are really high. So, balance sheets are looking really quite solid. And for those that own a home, there's still this huge benefit where 70% of the mortgage market is below 4% or better. So, a lot of homeowners have really affordable monthly mortgage payments.

Inflation is abating. So, as an example, gas at the pump nearing $2.50 a gallon in many spots. And financial conditions are easing. So, interest rates are dropping, which helps with payments as well for the consumer. And you have the Fed pivoting back to the dual mandate. So, they're going to be focused on keeping unemployment low. So, you've got a resilient consumer with the Fed at their back. The housing market is also strong, low supply and a lot of pent-up demand, so when rates drop, activity is going to increase. That's going to be a tailwind to home prices as well. So, we expect home price appreciation to continue in 2024.

So, all of that strength in the consumer and housing translates to strength in the credit outlook for asset backs and non-agency mortgage backs. Spreads have gone a little bit tight in most sectors. Agency mortgages, though, are still two standard deviations wide of investment-grade credit. ABS spreads still are attractive, too, where you can find 200 over pretty readily.

Thank you, Brian. So, with agency and ABS spreads, are there other specific investment themes that you and the team are targeting in this environment?

So, in agency mortgages, there are good opportunities in prepay protection specified pools. So, single-family mortgage agency pools that will perform well in a rally and give you good carry. And then in ABS, there's nice sectors that are going to perform as well, as long as you understand the specific risks. So, certain consumer, auto, equipment are areas that we like. And then one that's emerging is solar that we think offers value as well.

That's really helpful. Now, as we turn to another asset class, I'm going to bring you to the stage, Tim. Tim, the high-yield market continues to benefit from historically attractive yields. As we look into 2024, what are your expectations for the sector and what key factors are you watching?

Sure, thank you. Well, one of the key aspects of high-yield and where the macro meets the micro, so to speak, is the benefit that inflation has had on high-yield income statements as well as balance sheets. And while that inflation is slowing, that is still a tailwind for certain sectors within high yield. Think about building materials, energy, for example, that rise in commodity prices has been able to be pushed onto the consumer. And that has increased the revenue top line for many of these high-yield issuers. And that is fed down to the bottom line, which leads itself to deleveraging, and so in a robust income stream.

There are certain sectors, like healthcare as an example, where that payer base is fixed and they haven't been able to pay, pass that on to the consumer. And so, as we think about sectors that make sense for 2024, we continue to think that that slowing inflation, but inflation is going to be positive, but not as positive as 2023. And those sectors that are going to catch up with regard to their payer base, healthcare as an example, those are going to be sectors that the market still finds less favorable, that the valuations are compelling, and you're going to see that paradigm shift back in favor of that.

At the same time, duration, as Andrzej mentioned, is going to come back in favor. Duration is your friend. High coupon plus a longer duration asset class is a powerful total return scenario in this low-default environment.

Thank you, Tim. A follow-up question for you, as it relates to high yield on top of everyone's mind in this volatile market, and you mentioned the healthy fundamentals and credit strength, what do you think about the broader impact of defaults and how does this align with your thinking around the broader index and your active management within it?

It's one of my favorite questions to tackle for clients. The default expectations has been one of the most asked and also most misunderstood aspects within leveraged finance more broadly. There are three real drivers of defaults. It's an inability to repay your maturity wall or pay your debts when they come due, an inability to pay your interest expense, or some type of fraud. Those are really the three drivers of defaults. So, if you think about it, the maturity wall within leveraged finance is very small, very manageable. There's less than $150 billion or so of debt, so less than 10% of the market that comes due in the next two years. Companies are very aware of the direction of travel within interest rates and are patiently waiting for interest rates to come down before tapping that market. The market is wide open and supply, unlike IG, has actually been slower out of the gate this year than in many other sectors. Leveraged loans being the greatest example of that where supply has been near record-setting.

What that is to say, interest rates are manageable, the maturity wall is manageable. And while the earnings are robust, defaults are going to remain low. So, we think that, sure, defaults have to go up year-over-year because they can't really come down. They're still well off the near-all-time lows. And so, you're going to see more of a normalization to 4-5% over time, but that's not a near-term concern for us.

One of the other aspects that's misunderstood around that default picture is that hesitation or expectation that defaults are going to come forward is that the asset class is under-owned as a result. And so even the most slight reallocation to high yield from a core plus or from munis or from leveraged loan or the floating rate space in general will be a positive technical. And we're starting to see that pivot in retail fund flows here today.

Thank you, Tim. I'm going to stick with you for a moment. Andrzej talked about the overall team's perspective on a softer, soft slowdown or a lot of views of recession. Can we talk about a little bit how you would expect high yield to perform either in this scenario or a little bit of a more aggressive recession? What can investors expect?

So, let's start with the worst-case scenario. In an unforeseen market drawdown or in a scenario where there's a deep recession that certainly is not our expectation, we have to understand that high-yield balance sheets are coming from a position of strength. This is not the high-yield market of 2007 or during the European financial crisis. This is a high-yield market that is nearly 50% double-B rated, where leverage ratios and interest coverage ratios, i.e., the amount of cash flow companies generate relative to their interest expense every year, they're in a very healthy position. And that contrasts to a certain extent with leverage loans, which are in a bit of a different world. But by the same token, you're starting that slowdown in a better place. So, that should help.

In the environment where we see some disinflation, there's volatility in the rate space, that probably lends itself to behavior both at the corporate level for corporate CFOs managing their balance sheet, but also from an investor perspective where they don't see the excesses that we've seen in prior bubbles, where you see dividend deals growing, where you see leverage increasing in a balance sheet at a reckless path. What this has experience over the last few years has taught us post-COVID is that the companies are aware of the economic environment with which they operate in and the elongated tell or lead time into a recession that didn't come to fruition in 2023 as many expected, companies are prepared for it. And so, balance sheets are stronger. The market is not overbought. That's a powerful mitigant to any dramatic price action in the event that we do see a slowdown.

But that said, this year will provide opportunities. There are going to be certain sectors that come out of favor. There are going to be certain technical rebalances that the market was overbought in certain sectors in a flight to quality. Double-B's is an example of the most over-owned subset within high yield. Again, because of that fear that there is going to be a looming recession, our peer group has been overweight that cohort of rating band. And so, as the market realizes that there's value elsewhere, you're going to see compression and a general positive total return. Double digits is our base case for the year.

Thank you, Tim. Emphasizing the importance of an active manager and the importance of selecting the right manager in the high-yield space. Brian, while we're on the recession topic or soft landing and under our team's perspective, can you address the same question? How would mortgage-backed securities fare in your best/worst-case scenario environments?

I think, as Tim said, carry provides a ton of cushion. And so, yielding in the 5.50, 6%, 7% type area across the space, carry is going to be the driver this year like it was last year. So, the outlook is quite positive.

And I think also along the lines of inflation, clearly the pain trade would be for the Fed to pull back on the put that they've now re-offered out. And so, that seems really low probability. So, it is time to earn some of that yield, which hasn't been around for years.

Thank you, Brian.

I just had a good question I'd like to leave in right now for you, Andrzej. As we work with advisors and clients, I'd like to put this into perspective, but what were your biggest market surprises in 2023? And do you see any of these carrying into 2024? Anyone else feel free to address too, as Andrzej shares his thoughts.

There's been a lot of surprises, I have to admit. This market is keeping us all occupied and I'm losing sleep, not just because of my kids waking me up, but also because of events that are happening across our universe.

But when we're looking at the surprises in 2023, I think the key one has been the resilience of the US economy. We have seen a pretty meaningful slowdown in Europe. Chinese growth model has been faltering and there's been broad expectations across the investor community that ‘23 would bring a more pronounced slowdown in the US as well.

And back to the argument about the relative weakness of the manufacturing side, but relative strength of the consumer, that allowed the US economy to outperform expectations quite a bit more than market participants expected.

The other surprise for many participants has been the Fed pivot towards the back end of the year. So, we had a situation where inflation was moderating. That is something that we welcomed as a trend. However, in the face of a pretty robust performance of risk assets between both equities and Fixed Income, we were wondering whether a Federal Reserve will push back against some of that positive attitude within the markets and underline the message that the battle against inflation has not been won yet. But instead, Chair Powell decided to take a pretty benign take on current events and has turbo accelerated the rally into back end of the year, highlighting that the Fed, rather than considering whether to hike, is very much in the mode of when to cut as the next question. So, I thought those were the two key highlights to consider.

And the lesson from those coming into 2024 is to be flexible, is to look at the incoming data, challenge your presumptions about how this year should pan out, and be ready to adjust positioning accordingly. I mentioned earlier, our base case is a slowdown, not a recession, and the Fed cutting at some point later in the spring or in the summer, culminating with 100 basis points-plus of cuts this year. Well, we want to be ready to change those assumptions as incoming data points us in a new direction.

So, being flexible, being nimble, and also having the intellectual honesty within the team of admitting where some of the assumptions we got wrong and changing course accordingly, that will be absolutely critical for investors to steer successfully through this year.

Thank you, Andrzej. I love that humble approach and intellectual honesty comment. It just definitely resonated with me when I think about all the managers I've worked with.

Brian or Tim, is there anything you'd like to add about surprises or things to manage in 2024?

Well, I think you are going to see volatility to varying degrees in the rate market around data that's released. One of the things that I think surprised me most around 2023's data set is that it just shows how much valuation matters. If you think about what's priced into a market when the data that you actually expect to occur is released, the macro data is actually released and it supports your theory, and then the reaction of the market is something quite different because of positioning. And what I think from a high-yield perspective in particular, you want to focus on the direction of travel and the trend if you zoom out, so to speak.

Thinking about longer-term trends of disinflation and allowing carry to do its job for you and not to focus on the day-to-day machinations of whether or not the 10-year is three bps wider, five bps tighter based on technicals, and which hedge fund is behaving in a certain way on any given Friday.

Thanks, Tim. Brian, does that resonate with you? Is there anything you'd like to share with the team from your space too?

I think it's more clear this year that the work the Fed has done is going to come through. So, the soft landing, which we were hoping was happening last year, and it wasn't coming through, but the data's finally turning our way. And our stars, there's so much real rate built in that has to slow things down. So, it's bound to happen this year and it seems really low probability the Fed doesn't move.

Well, now onto a hot topic after the last few weeks with Iowa, New Hampshire under our belt, South Carolina coming up, geopolitical factors and what factors should we be considering? What are your thoughts, Andrzej? And then I'll do a follow-up question that just came across. Sorry to put two on you at the same time, but I want to be sure to be able to capture it. You talk about the strength and the resilience of the US market.

So, with all these political/geopolitical factors teeming into the US market, how does that affect us? What should we be considering as investors? But then also, how does it stack up to the rest of the globe?

Well, it will be a busy political season, whether we're looking forward to that or whether we want to run for the hills given the intensity of the debate that is awaiting us over the months to come.

But from an investment perspective, what we would highlight is that with the previous Republican administration (with the Trump administration) one of the key things that has changed was the willingness of spending into a slowing economy. Previously, a lot of Republican administrations were erring on the side of tightening spending, balancing budgets. You remember the term “sequestration” that was so frequently used when discussing a budget situation. And that has changed when Trump was in power. So, there was a clear willingness to help the economy deal with any potential slowdowns. And that is the key reason why, whether one or the other side of the political spectrum will emerge victorious in the election awaiting us later this year.

In both cases, in case of a slowdown that would be more pronounced, we would expect supportive policies rather than anything that would exacerbate weakness within the economy. So, from that perspective, we do not see this election as particularly impactful for the markets, at least in a negative sense. Of course, there are nuances like, for example, mergers and acquisitions. We have seen quite a number of transactions blocked by the current administration. And you could imagine that that would be relaxed on a Republican administration.

But broadly speaking, we do not see this election as something to be particularly concerned about, at least from the investment perspective over the quarters to come.

Thank you, Andrzej. That's reassuring. I want to thank everybody for all the questions as I'm managing them coming in. It's greatly appreciated to keep the conversation active. So, if you have additional questions, please send them across.

So, here's another one. Brian, I'm going to turn to you. What is the probability the 10-year remains at or above 4% for the extended period of time, even if the Fed cuts rates? What is your view here? Or what is the team's view, if you could share the house view?

Well, pivot that one to the team with the 10-year at 4.10. It seems an extended period. Andrzej, you take that one.

Good try, Brian. Good try. Look, in the near term, it is pretty clear that there will be a lot of Treasuries issued into the market to finance the deficit. So, we're actually switching from a negative net issuance over the recent few months into a positive number and quite an increasing one. So, we're moving to about 100 billion in the next month and even more beyond that. So, there is an argument that the market might demand a slightly higher yield in the near term as it tries to absorb a meaningful pickup in Treasury supply. However, at the end of the day, we're not too concerned about that because purely looking at the amount of money that has been sitting in money market funds or savings pools that offshore investors are happy to allocate to comparatively higher-yielding US Government debt securities, we do think that extra issuance will be absorbed quite easily.

So, yes, yields can move up a little bit in the near term, but the more clarity you have on the inflation front, the more near the prospects of the rate cuts will be, the more likely, in our opinion, is that 10-year goes again below 4% as it did at the back end of last year.

Thank you. Another question from the audience. I will direct this one to you, Brian, you can't get out of this one.

“As you lead a few of our impact offerings within Fixed Income, the question came across – and others can feel free to hop in – ESG and DEI headlines within our investments have provided challenges. I talk to my clients on both sides of the equation, what are areas investors should consider when investing in Fixed Income in particular?”

Thank you. ESG is one of my favorite topics, and I think fascinating both with the political environment and how it's not clear cut, especially for a financial advisor, investment manager, it's very politicized. And the regulatory landscape is a great way to approach it too. When you look at the dichotomy of – in Europe with its mass of regulations that it already has in place, where they're really trying to rut out greenwashing, increase compliance, they had SFDR, TCFD, but they also have 15 more at least different regulations coming through over the next year or two. So, it's extremely complex for investment managers and financial advisors. And in the US, we have some of the exact same thing.

So, California looks a lot like Europe, making it very complicated and disclosure extremely heavy. But the US, we also have the total opposite where you have Texas, Florida, et cetera, where ESG practices, DEI are getting punished. New Hampshire has even put it on the slate now to make ESG integration a felony. So, it's really difficult to navigate, it takes a lot of… more than ever understanding of your audience, for sure.

Also, maybe a pivot towards something more along the lines of value-based investing, community investing, focusing more on outcomes than on buzzwords, if you will.

Thank you, Brian. Tim, a question for you. If rates fall, could we see a wave of debt-funded M&A? And I know Andrzej already mentioned M&A a bit. Could you address that question from the audience?

Within certain sectors, we are seeing a wave of M&A, particularly in energy and high yield. And M&A for where you see investment-grade companies buy high-yield issuers, and then having two higher-quality high-yield issuers merge to create a company that will ultimately be investment-grade. And that M&A is a function of – again, it's easier to have M&A when balance sheets are in decent shape. It's harder for two companies that are over-levered to merge.

Rates historically, if you believe that they're coming down, you'll be able to refinance any of that debt-funded M&A. And by and large, I think for a market that is shrinking somewhat, the amount outstanding in high-yield issuers is actually slightly less than a few years ago. I think that you're going to see M&A pick up, but also LBOs pick up. And you're going to see more sponsor activity as rates decline, because their cost of debt funding will decline as well. And so, their opportunity set will grow.

Nothing dramatic, such that it would cause material repricing in the market. And I think a pickup in LBO activity would probably be healthy for many participants to see.

But again, M&A is generally speaking a net positive for the high-yield asset class, and I do think you'll see it continue to pick up.

I have a really good question to bring all three of you in on, but Andrzej, I will start with you.

“I'm an institutional investor working with an investment committee. How do you make the case for Fixed Income in each of the sectors we are talking about today, and how would it measure up against other asset classes?”

My suggestion, as the moderator, let's try to give everybody three bullet points.

No pressure. Look, I think broadly, maybe I'll answer for Fixed Income and tie investment-grade into that, and then Tim and Brian could address the securitized space and high yield.

The key reason why you want to pull the trigger now is because, after a period of consolidation, we now have yields that actually have bucked up, have given up some of the gains we've seen in the ferocious rally end of last year. And at the same time, we are getting more clarity from the companies about direction of travel as they're commenting on the outlooks for the rest of the year. So, you have a better entry point in terms of Government bond yields. You have more confidence in companies traversing the slowdown in a strong shape. And as active managers, we see a lot of pockets of value that are still ready to be exploited for the benefit of our clients.

So, looking at a space like investment-grade where it does not take much to generate double-digit return within our forecast period, we think the time to lock in the yields is now, before the rate cuts occur and before those yields start moving south.

And how we are getting to the 10% total return is purely if you look at our, for example, Core Plus strategy as a just basic example, it's running at a yield of about 6%. And all it takes to get to double-digit return is about 50 basis points decline in average yields in the US. And that's something that we do not think is particularly aggressive as an expectation over the next 12 months. And then maybe 15 basis points tightening in spreads. Again, not dramatic by historical standards within the investment-grade asset class.

So, we absolutely believe that this is a very opportune time to take advantage of some of the consolidation we witnessed in recent weeks and pull the trigger before yields start moving south.

Thank you, Andrzej. Tim, any thoughts to add on for specifically high yield?

Sure. I'll give you the three bullet points. High yield, low defaults, a lot of liquidity. You're seeing that asset class where you can generate just about 8%, a little bit over 8% carry. So, in the environment that Andrzej just described, those double-digit yields should be very easy to come by. Low defaults and the market is more liquid today than it has been in quite some time. This is not your father's high-yield market from 2005. You can trade entire strips of the portfolio in portfolio trading. Electronic trading has come about. The derivative market is large and liquid with regard to CDX and things along those lines.

And so, as issuers have grown in size, the market participants have increased and the number of participants in each deal has increased and that allows for greater pools of liquidity to present themselves. And so, when I think about those three points, you're going to generate enough yield to outpace inflation and generate a real after-tax return that is going to look very positive. Defaults are going to be low, particularly for active managers that can avoid those. And again, you can have access to the market when you want it at a lower cost of transaction than you ever have been able to before for commensurate returns that you're seeing in the alternative space.

If you look at last year's return relative to what returns were in private debt or leveraged loans, they were right on top of each other for a very large liquid market.

Thank you, Tim. And Brian, for your space in particular as well. Do you have any thoughts?

It's the same themes. So, the short version is that you do have a credit-quality backdrop that's really positive. Income is your friend. And we have the Fed. The Fed has our back again. It's been years they've been against us. Now, the Fed's here again and really wants to keep rates here or a smidge lower.

Well, thank you so much, gentlemen. And thank you everyone for joining the discussion today. You made my job easier with all the great questions that came across. Some parting favors. In our attachment link below the video viewer, you'll find a one-page of our key takeaways from today's discussion. I highly encourage to download it. It makes it easier to regurgitate and sustain some of the learnings today. But we also provided a link to one of my favorite RBC tools. And it's our weekly podcast, The Weekly Fix, where Andrzej and his team share market commentary and insights into what's driving the market. My favorite part, five minutes each week. So, very easy to digest, quick-hitting, ability to educate yourself on what's going on in the moment.

Tomorrow, you're going to receive a short survey. Please provide us feedback on today's webinar. It's the way we can make it better. And we appreciate you taking the moment to share any comments you have.

Last but not least, you will get a replay of this discussion and today's panel. Please share it with your colleagues. The more we can impact people's learnings in the Fixed Income space, the more we get out of it, too. So, we look forward to continuing those discussions and sharing our investment perspectives with you through the year. In the meantime, please reach out to your relationship manager with any questions or needs.

Have a great afternoon, everyone.

Key areas of discussion will include:

  • Risk factors and potential opportunities in Investment Grade, High Yield and Asset Backed securities.

  • Our view on how US economic growth and inflation will affect policy makers.

  • The primary beneficiaries of investor’s re-engagement with fixed income.

  • A view on the fundamental and technical factors supporting debt markets.

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