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29 minutes, 23 seconds to listen by  BlueBay Fixed Income team, T.Leary Apr 30, 2025

Tim Leary, Senior Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay US Fixed Income team, is joined by Frances Donald, Chief Economist with Royal Bank of Canada, to discuss the unique economic environment we find ourselves in. They go in-depth on the implications of the policy decisions being made and how difficult it has become to forecast what comes next.

Key points

  • We don't technically have a recession in our outlook, but something that looks awfully close.

  • The balance of risks is skewed to the downside. The magnitude of the uncertainty is very complicated to forecast.

  • GDP summarizes the entire story but misses major differences between income groups.

  • America does not need jobs. America needs workers.

  • While all eyes are on tariffs, we're focused on the labor market and how it's behaving very differently than it has in the past.

  • Cutting government spending is challenging because it weighs on growth. Our view is that governments are just going to continue to get larger.

Listen on your podcast app Apple Spotify

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