Matthew Maggio, Senior Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, discusses how the President’s full tariff policy will soon be revealed and how that might affect the economy, consumers and markets.
Watch time: 3 minutes, 4 seconds
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Hello and welcome to The Weekly Fix. My name is Matt Maggio and I’m a Senior Portfolio Manager with RBC GAM’s US Collateral Loan Obligation (CLO) business.
Tariff speculation has been the hot topic over the past few weeks, and has been the main driver of market volatility. Tomorrow, on Liberation day, President Trump will outline his tariff plan.
Per Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the tariffs will be reciprocal in nature, and will provide the ability for impacted countries to lower their tariffs, reduce non-tariff barriers, and end currency manipulation, all in an effort to make the global trading system fair for American workers again.
Additional drivers of uncertainty include potential near term inflation due to tariffs, reduced or paused capex spending, and a potential higher for longer rate environment. Consumers are also taking a pause given the market noise, as confidence surveys have started to show weakness.
Two sectors that have seen the most volatility from tariff fears are autos and building products. During Covid, we saw several sponsors taking up leverage well above historical norms in building products. That trade is now seeing the pain of what cyclicality does to liquidity. All that to say, we think this is a great opportunity to pick winners in the sector to drive returns over the next 12-18 months.
The US Leveraged loan market has held up relatively well in this environment given a consistent CLO bid in the face of the ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) outflows. The current environment for new CLO creation has been difficult given widening AAA spreads and a steepening curve. Equity arbitrage has been challenged recently as the loan market has lagged the broader markets, which is not a typical historically speaking.
Price volatility has been seen most in tight B3 / B- loans, which saw recent tight new issue execution of SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) + 275 – 300, and has created convexity and opportunity to buy at a discount. These spreads from 4Q24 were recent historical tights. B- loans since January are 50bps wider, while higher quality BB- loans are only 25bps wider. Trading up in quality given market uncertainty is a popular trade.
Strategically we had built cash going into the volatility, especially focused on selling low coupon B3/B-. Right now, we feel staying nimble is the best strategy.
Thank you for your time and partnership.
Key points
Tariff speculation has been the main driver of market volatility.
Additional drivers of uncertainty include:
Potential near-term inflation due to tariffs
Reduced or paused capex spending
A potential higher for longer rate environment
The US Leveraged loan market has held up relatively well in this environment.