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Over the last few years, fixed income allocations pulled below strategic
weight for many allocators as equity markets kept rising and accommodative
monetary policy pushed yields lower and duration longer. Attractive fixed
income yields were becoming scarcer and fear around what would happen
if rates normalised meant risks in the space were elevated.
Cut to 2022 when central banks began guidance to raise rates and followed
through with action, bond markets sold off aggressively. Clients responded by
reducing duration, moved in favour of floating rate from fixed-rate securities,
and in some cases, moved entirely to cash and cash-plus strategies.
Chart 1: Negative yielding debt has fallen from c.USD24trn to USD4trn in 9 months (to end April 22)
Source: Macrobond, as at April 2022
Fast forward to today, and for the first time in years, high yield (HY) bonds are
offering high yields (some 7.7%1), and investment grade (IG) fixed income has
income to fix (3.9%2). This said, investors are still understandably on the fence
as to whether to re-engage with the asset class.
Fast forward to today, and for the first time in years, high yield (HY) bonds are
offering high yields (some 7.7%1), and investment grade (IG) fixed income has
income to fix (3.9%2).
While macro risks remain elevated, a new challenge has entered the fray –
not owning enough duration against your strategic allocation.