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  • Canada

    Canada’s economy showed some improvement into the end of 2024, helped by rising consumer spending and better housing investment thanks to lower interest rates.

  • United States

    Consensus is for 10% profit growth for the S&P 500 in 2025. This bar is high but achievable without serious policy error.

  • Europe

    The eurozone faces headwinds, with the currency bloc’s economic performance continuing to trail the U.S. amid trade uncertainty and slack business confidence.

  • Asia

    We expect Asian equity volatility in 2025 as President Trump enacts his trade policies.

  • Emerging markets

    Earnings growth should become a key driver of emerging market equities returns in 2025.

Executive summary

Uncertainty abounds as the trade war threatens economic growth, complicates the outlook on inflation, and stokes financial-market volatility, causing investors to weigh a wide range of possible outcomes. In this environment, stocks are under pressure as investors shun expensive U.S. large-cap growth stocks in favour of those with more reasonable valuations.

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Economy

Next year should be somewhat better with the worst of the tariff adjustment complete and U.S. tax cuts acting as a tailwind.

Fixed income

Central banks are proceeding with caution as they weigh U.S. policy uncertainty and competing priorities of economic weakness and inflation strength calling for opposite action.

Equity markets

The tariffs sparked an intense sell-off that pushed many technical and sentiment indicators to extremes and shifted leadership away from U.S. stocks.

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