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by  RBC Emerging Markets Equity teamL.Bensafi, CFA Dec 22, 2023

Saudi Arabia has evolved in recent years, and prior to our recent trip, we wondered if the changes would be evident. Arriving in the country, we noticed the modern and efficient airport and we were greeted warmly by the friendly female border control officer.

Changes in the country began under the previous King Abdulaziz but have accelerated since HRH Prince Mohammed bin Salman (“MBS”) became Crown Prince in 2017 and effectively took over from his father, King Salman. MBS is currently the Prime Minister, Chairman of the Saudi Council of Economic & Development Affairs and the driving force behind the changes in the country over the past few years.

A controversial figure, MBS is seen as a reformist on one hand but has also been accused of running an authoritarian and repressive regime on the other. Nonetheless, he has been able to embark on a rapid succession of reforms under the banner of his Vision 2030 plan, which includes both economic and social reforms:

  • On the social front, many changes have already happened and are far reaching, from women’s rights to promoting exercise and wellbeing. In 2017 the ban on cinema was lifted, while in 2018 MBS announced that abayas were no longer compulsory.
  • In terms of economic reforms, the plan looks at diversifying the economy away from fossil fuel by notably developing non-oil exports, localising the production of key industries, deriving 35% of GDP from SMEs, and developing entertainment and tourism activities.

Talking to management of businesses in the country, they highlighted another set of key reforms which took place in 2021 and 2022: judicial reforms, which effectively created a framework away from Sharia law and created a consistent set of rules, reliable procedures and codification of laws. These are crucial for the development of a strong private sector and in order to attract investment.

In our piece, we also share our thoughts on Riyadh, a city under construction, and we highlight our meeting with the Public Investment Fund (“PIF”), the government arm in charge of financing the Vision 2030 initiatives.

We came back from our trip feeling positive about the large potential for growth, and we could sense how much the country has already evolved. However, there are still many hurdles along the way to reach the ambitious goals set up by the Crown Prince. The main risk for the country is a sudden change in leadership which could lead to a return to a more socially conservative society, as well as halting the Vision 2030 project.

Please read the full piece here.

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