Laurence Bensafi, gestionnaire de portefeuille et chef déléguée de l’équipe Actions, Marchés émergents, RBC Global Asset Management (UK) Limited, nous fait part de ses réflexions sur 2024 et l’année à venir.
Plusieurs pays ont réalisé de bons résultats cette année. Les valeurs technologiques de Taïwan ont profité de l’enthousiasme entourant le thème de l’IA et ont fait belle figure. L’Inde continue également d’afficher de bons résultats et, bien que surprenant, le résultat des élections a finalement été accueilli assez positivement et le marché boursier a atteint de nouveaux sommets. La Chine s’est étonnamment relevée depuis la fin du mois de septembre et a annoncé des mesures de relance qui ont été positivement accueillies par les investisseurs.
De nombreuses incertitudes subsistent quant au calendrier des nouvelles baisses de taux aux États-Unis, à la trajectoire du dollar et à l’éventualité d’un atterrissage en douceur ou de la survenue d’une récession. Les actions des marchés émergents ont offert des rendements assez solides malgré la conjoncture difficile.
Cette année fut l’une des plus difficiles en matière de perspectives. L’élection de Trump va générer beaucoup d’incertitudes pour cette catégorie d’actif. Le président élu a évoqué la hausse des tarifs douaniers pour tous les pays qui entretiennent des relations commerciales avec les États-Unis, et a en particulier souligné un tarif douanier d’au moins 60 % sur les biens chinois.
Cette hausse potentielle pourrait avoir une grande incidence et réduire de moitié la croissance économique du pays dans les années à venir. Elle aurait également des répercussions sur de nombreux autres pays émergents voisins de la Chine en Asie du Sud-Est. L’Amérique latine, et en particulier le Mexique, serait également touchée par les droits de douane.
Le marché a déjà intégré bien des éléments dans ce contexte difficile, et nous nous attendons à ce que plusieurs pays négocient avec les États-Unis. Comme par le passé, nous anticipons une résolution l’an prochain pour la Chine. Les autorités peuvent également adopter d’autres mesures pour stimuler l’économie du pays et améliorer les habitudes de consommation, ce qui devrait favoriser une plus forte croissance.
En anglais seulement
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Transcription
2025 Market View – Emerging Markets Equities
Laurence Bensafi, Managing Director and Portfolio Manager, Deputy Head of Emerging Market Equities, RBC Global Asset Management (UK) Limited
Laurence: We had a pretty good year for emerging market equities in 2024 so far. Quite a few countries had a good performance, a strong performance. For instance, Taiwan did well. Technology stocks in the country did well on the back of, again, a strong performance from AI stocks. India, continues to perform strongly even after the elections where we had a bit of a surprise there, but which were, in the end, taken quite positively and the stock market reached new highs there.
We had China that had a surprise comeback since the end of September when finally some kind of stimulus was announced and that was again taken very positively by investors. In a pretty difficult global environment, I would say, where there are still a lot of uncertainties regarding the timing of more rate cuts in the US, the US dollar trajectory, and in general, if we're going to have a soft landing or a more recessionary environment going forward, in that tough environment, emerging market equities performed quite strongly, I would say.
It's tricky. I would say this year is probably one of the toughest years where we are to give an outlook for the asset class going forward. The big news happened only recently and it was the election of Donald Trump in the US and that is going to create a lot of uncertainties for asset class. Obviously, President-elect Trump has talked about really high tariffs for all countries that are trading with the US, and in particular, he wants to implement a really high tariff of 60% to China.
But that would have a big impact on China itself. If nothing else changes, it could halve the economic growth for China in the coming years. That will have also an impact on many other emerging market countries neighboring China, so Southeast Asia, but also in other countries that are going to be impacted by higher, probably, interest rates for longer in the US. For instance, Latin American countries will be impacted.
Having said that, in a difficult environment, we see also a lot of value in emerging market equities because we've seen already a sell-off in the equity, we've seen already some weaknesses in the currencies, and emerging market equities already trade at the biggest discount to develop markets ever. A lot is priced in and there will be negotiation between the US and several countries. China, for instance, we've seen in the past that the two countries can agree on some kind of trade agreement, and we're hoping for some kind of resolution as well next year. China can also continue to stimulate its economy, its potential really to improve the consumption patterns, that should also help to generate higher growth.
When it comes to other countries, for instance, Mexico, that is quite impacted as well by this result of the elections, well, again, there's a lot of negotiation that can happen between the new presidents in both countries, actually. So even though the environment seems quite tricky going forward, a lot of it is priced in, and I think there'll be a lot of discussion, a lot of negotiation. That's what President-elect Trump is known for, and things can turn out actually a lot more positive than they look like at the moment.