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Sommaire

Divers facteurs nous ont incités à hausser à 60 % la probabilité d’un atterrissage en douceur de l’économie américaine, que nous évaluions à 40 % au dernier trimestre. Nous entrevoyons maintenant une croissance modeste lors du premier semestre de 2024 plutôt qu’une récession.

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Économie

Nous avons haussé à 60 % la probabilité d’un atterrissage en douceur de l’économie américaine, que nous évaluions à 40 % au dernier trimestre, et nous entrevoyons maintenant une croissance modeste lors du premier semestre de 2024 plutôt qu’une récession.

Titre à revenu fixe

Nos modèles indiquent des taux obligataires appropriés plus bas si l’inflation continue de chuter comme nous le prévoyons. Diverses mesures techniques haussières laissent également entrevoir d’excellentes perspectives pour les obligations.

Marchés boursiers

Les actions mondiales ont profité d’une forte reprise au dernier trimestre, de nombreux grands marchés ayant atteint des sommets records. Toutefois, la plupart des gains récents ont été réalisés par une poignée de sociétés de technologie à mégacapitalisation.

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