Polina Kurdyavko, première directrice générale, première gestionnaire de portefeuille et cheffe, Marchés émergents, Titres à revenu fixe BlueBay, RBC Global Asset Management (UK) Limited, résume l’évolution du marché en 2025 pour la catégorie d’actifs et nous fait part de ses réflexions pour 2026.
En 2025, les rendements des titres à revenu fixe des marchés émergents ont été solides, les titres de créance d’État en monnaie forte rapportant environ 15 % et les titres de créance d’État en monnaie locale offrant des rendements supérieurs à 15 %, autant grâce aux taux que sous l’effet des devises.
Les titres de créance en monnaie locale (90 % des émissions sur les ME, soit une ampleur comparable à celle du marché des titres du Trésor américain) offrent des rendements réels élevés et des valorisations attrayantes, ce qui assure la viabilité de la dette et présente des occasions pour les investisseurs en 2026.
Les alliances géopolitiques continueront probablement à porter fruit. Par exemple, l’Amérique latine profite du soutien stratégique des États-Unis sous la gouverne de Donald Trump, et d’éventuels changements de leadership favorables au marché lors des élections de 2026 amplifient les vents favorables.
Les taux de défaillance devraient rester inférieurs à 1 %, tandis que les défaillances de sociétés se maintiendront autour de 5 % grâce au faible endettement des ME, à l’amélioration des déficits budgétaires et à l’augmentation des émissions liées aux critères ESG.
Les marchés émergents offriront des sources d’alpha diversifiées et à faible corrélation en 2026, ce qui encourage les investisseurs à adopter des stratégies ciblées plutôt que des pondérations dans de vastes catégories d’actifs.
(En anglais seulement)
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Polina Kurdyavko, CFA
Managing Director, Senior Portfolio Manager & Head of Emerging Markets, BlueBay Fixed Income, RBC Global Asset Management (UK) Limited
How would you summarize 2025 in Emerging Market Debt?
Polina Kurdyavko: 2025 has been a strong year for emerging market fixed income. We have seen hard currency sovereign debt delivering mid-teen returns, and local currency sovereign debt being amongst the best performers within the asset class, delivering high teens in terms of return. Both coming from rates component and FX component. This strong performance has been supported by three underlying themes that we continue to see playing out next year. Monetary policy orthodoxy, geopolitical support for select countries or regions, and last, but not least, the fundamental strength of emerging market economies.
What is your outlook for Emerging Market Debt in 2026?
Polina Kurdyavko: Let me share with you what do we expect from these themes in 2026. Monetary policy orthodoxy remains the key factor underpinning debt sustainability in emerging markets. Over 90% of all debt in emerging market fixed income is issued in local currency. In fact, local currency market is equivalent to the size of the U.S. Treasury market. That, on one hand, reduces vulnerability in emerging market hard currency issuance.
On the other hand, provides interesting opportunities for investors to generate attractive total returns by accessing local currency markets, which today not only offer highest real yields, i.e., the differential between EM rates and U.S. rates over the last decade, but also have attractive FX valuation levels, which on a three-decade view is still very much at the bottom of the trading range, vis-à-vis the dollar.
The second factor is geopolitical alliances. We've seen big shifts in emerging market geopolitical stance through the course of this year, which we are likely to continue playing out next year. In particular, the main region that benefited from the new U.S. administration is Latin America, where Donald Trump views this region as strategic and wants to do whatever it takes to support its own backyard, so to say, through economic and political assistance. Especially when it comes to the countries that have aligned presidents with Donald Trump thinking.
Knowing that we have elections in countries like Colombia and Brazil next year, we could see further positive momentum as their leadership changes to a more market friendly one. Last but not least, is the expectation of default outlook. Broadly speaking, we expect low defaults in emerging markets, in particular in the sovereign space, we would expect default rates to be sub 1%, while in the corporate space, we would expect defaults to be in the mid single digits. We think fundamentally, emerging market continues to benefit from two main factors.
Firstly, relatively low debt leverage, vis-à-vis GDP, compared to developed economies. And secondly, quite low fiscal deficit on a relative basis. Moreover, we expect fiscal deficit to contract, generically speaking, in emerging markets over the next three to four years. Last but not least, some countries, in particular in frontier economies, still require support, and we think debt sustainability in certain countries could be challenged. But these are the areas where we see as alpha opportunities. We also expect these type of issues to drive more ESG-linked issuance, as investors are paying a lot more attention to transparency and the use of proceeds.
Overall, we believe 2026 will be a very interesting year, where emerging markets can be used as a source of alpha, with relatively low correlation between each other. Therefore, we encourage investors to look at different emerging market strategies to address particular concern in their portfolio, rather than looking at the asset class as an asset class they want to invest, or don't want to invest in. Ultimately, we have the full breadth of solutions for investors using emerging markets sources of alpha, both in relative return and absolute return.
Video recorded on November 21, 2025