Laurence Bensafi, première directrice générale et gestionnaire de portefeuille, cheffe déléguée, Actions, Marchés émergents, RBC Global Asset Management (UK) Limited, présente un résumé du marché en 2025 pour cette catégorie d’actif et donne ses impressions pour 2026.
Cette année, les actions des marchés émergents ont enregistré un rendement deux fois supérieur à celui de l’indice S&P 500, portées par les progrès de l’IA en Chine, la vigueur des titres liés à l’IA en Corée et à Taïwan, ainsi que l’annonce de droits de douane soulignant la dépendance des États-Unis aux importations des marchés émergents.
Nous croyons que 2026 marquera un tournant pour les actions des marchés émergents, qui devraient être valorisées plus justement dans les portefeuilles, contrairement aux pays développés qui font face à une instabilité politique, à des déficits importants et à une dette élevée.
Le maintien d’une croissance durable exige des rendements boursiers plus élevés et une progression plus rapide des bénéfices dans les marchés émergents. Toutefois, des réformes récentes (p. ex., le programme de valorisation des entreprises en Corée et les rachats d’actions en Chine) indiquent une amélioration des tendances.
Les pays développés ressemblent de plus en plus aux marchés émergents d’autrefois, avec une instabilité politique, d’énormes déficits, une lourde dette et une inflation élevée. Entre-temps, les pays émergents ont tiré parti de la mondialisation et de la désindustrialisation des pays développés.
Malgré des atouts fondamentaux, la réussite des réformes et l’amélioration de la rentabilité seront essentielles pour soutenir une reprise durable à long terme.
(en anglais seulement)
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How would you summarize 2025 in Emerging Market Equities?
Laurence Bensafi
Emerging market equities have done very well so far this year, doubling the performance of the S&P 500. There were three main drivers. Number one, China is back. Thanks to DeepSeek, the country showed the world it is probably not as far behind as thought in the AI race. Number two, the strong performance of names exposed to the AI theme in Korea and Taiwan. IT is now by far the biggest sector in emerging markets as the entire AI manufacturing chain is located in Asia. Number three, Liberation Day, at the beginning of April, the tariffs announcement backfired as itexposed the dependence of the US to many countries, most notably to emerging markets for imports. EM equities were very cheap and under owned, helping to fuel a large rally.
What is your outlook for Emerging Market Equities in 2026?
Laurence Bensafi
Looking into 2026, we believe that we are at a turning point for emerging market equities that are about to be valued at their true worth and to have the place they deserve in equity portfolios. A place that was important but which has been greatly reduced because the asset class has underperformed for a long time in an environment of strong earnings growth in the US, with also a very strong US dollar.
However, when we take a closer look, developed countries are increasingly resembling the emerging markets of the past, political instability, high deficits, high debt, high inflation. Emerging market countries have, in the meantime, used globalisation and a deindustrialisation of developed countries to their advantage. Many reforms have also been implemented. And the result is that the majority of emerging market countries now have half the debt and deficits of developed countries. After the strong recent performance and to sustain the rally over the long term, we would need to see higher returns on equities and faster earnings growth.
They are both currently lower in emerging markets than in the U.S. We, however, believe that the trend has been improving recently and will continue to do so as reform to generate better shareholder returns have been announced in several countries. For instance, with the value-up programme in Korea, the market has risen 100% this year, as the new government has announced that its number one priority is to improve the quality of corporates. In China, share buybacks hardly existed, and are very common, so we're going in the right direction. In China, another driver for improving returns would be to tackle overcapacity and lower the saving rate.
Few of those improvements are priced in with many opportunities in the asset class, notably in the Quality and Value segments. China remains attractively valued. In terms of sector, there are many opportunities in Financials and Consumer Staples that are very undervalued. In summary, emerging markets equities are very well positioned, but they also have to deliver, especially earnings growth and better profitability, for a sustained long-term rally. The foundations are solid, but in the next few years, execution will be key.
Video recorded on November 21, 2025
Intervenant :
Laurence Bensafi, Managing Director and Portfolio Manager, Deputy Head of Emerging Market Equities, RBC Global Asset Management (UK) Limited