Maya Funaki, gestionnaire de portefeuille, Actions asiatiques RBC, RBC Global Asset Management (Asia) Limited, présente un résumé du marché en 2025 pour cette catégorie d’actif et donne ses impressions pour 2026.
Les actions japonaises ont bondi en 2025, l’indice MSCI Japan dépassant les sommets de 1989, sous l’effet des réformes de la gouvernance d’entreprise, de l’amélioration des données fondamentales, des cours raisonnables et de la croissance constante du BPA.
Des changements politiques ont conduit à l’élection de la première femme à la tête du gouvernement japonais, dont l’approche favorable à la croissance et à l’investissement a été bien accueillie par le marché, bien que la lutte contre l’inflation élevée sera une priorité en 2026.
Les tensions géopolitiques avec la Chine sont considérées comme passagères, contrebalancées par le renforcement des liens avec les États-Unis qui favorise un renouveau dans plusieurs secteurs, comme la défense et la construction navale.
Les investisseurs mondiaux sont très sous-exposés à la troisième économie en importance au monde, et nous nous attendons à une forte impulsion à mesure que la confiance des investisseurs se raffermira à l’égard du Japon.
(en anglais seulement)
Durée : {{ formattedDuration }}
Transcription
2025 was another strong year for Japan Equities. With the MSCI Japan Index far surpassing its 1989 record, we saw a continuation and acceleration of the themes that helped to drive market turnaround over the last couple of years. Firstly, the success of Tokyo's Corporate Governance Reform helped to maintain investor interest in the region. These, in combination with improving corporate fundamentals, reasonable valuations, and consistent EPS growth, show plenty of room for upside.
That said, Japan has also overcome some hurdles this year. In September, Ishiba resigned as leader of the ruling LDP after the party lost its majority in the upper house in July, but not before securing a 15% tariff-free deal with the Trump administration. Following some weeks of uncertainty, Takaichi won the leadership vote for the LDP, and then became Japan's first female prime minister.
This event was seen positively by the market on the back of her pro-growth, pro-investment stance, similar to her mentor Abe. This approach marks a significant inflection point with Japan's policy outlook, coined Abenomics 2.0, modest expansionary fiscal policy, gentle monetary normalisation, and structural reform. It is worth recognising, though, that Takaichi will have to navigate carefully in the context of multi-decade high inflation. Real wages are also yet to keep pace with this new environment, but we would anticipate these to follow suit in late 2025, early 2026, alongside previously delayed rate hikes.
Some modest market concerns have arisen regarding Takaichi's foreign policy, especially on Japan-China relations, which have already hit some turbulence early into her term. But we know Japan-China tensions have often flared before, with previous negative impacts being short-lived. As a counterbalance to China, Japan seeks to have a strong relationship with the US and other strategic partners, driving renewal in several industries such as defense and shipbuilding.
A relatively weaker yen should also help drive corporate earnings with other regional neighbors, such as South Korea. Having experienced strong growth this year from similar narratives, we see this as a large tailwind for Japan ahead. Global investors remain underexposed to the world's third largest economy, and we see strong momentum ahead as investor sentiment continues to intensify for Japan. Normalised inflation, relatively lower rates, and corporate governance reform enable us to see the market rally continuing in the new year.
Intervenant :
Maya Funaki, Gestionnaire de portefeuille, Actions asiatiques RBC, RBC Global Asset Management (Asia) Limited