L’incertitude règne alors que la guerre commerciale menace la croissance économique, complique les perspectives d’inflation et attise la volatilité sur les marchés financiers, ce qui oblige les investisseurs à soupeser une grande variété d’issues possibles. Dans ce contexte, les actions sont sous pression, car les investisseurs évitent les titres de croissance américains à grande capitalisation qui sont chers et privilégient ceux dont les valorisations sont plus raisonnables.

Économie

• L’intensification de l’activité et le manque de clarté à propos de la politique américaine menacent de freiner temporairement la croissance économique, car les entreprises et les ménages choisissent de reporter les décisions clés.

• Le risque de récession est maintenant substantiel pour le Canada et le Mexique, et il a même un peu augmenté pour les États-Unis, où la probabilité de récession est passée de 15 % à 25 % ou plus. Nos prévisions de croissance dans les pays développés ont été presque universellement revues à la baisse pour 2025 et se situent maintenant un peu en deçà des attentes générales.

• Les risques liés à ces prévisions de croissance vont dans les deux sens et sont principalement liés en fin de compte à l’ampleur et à la durée des droits de douane, conjointement au risque de baisse découlant de l’aggravation des tensions géopolitiques.

Titres à revenu fixe

• Le taux de l’obligation du Trésor américain à 10 ans a grimpé à 4,21 % à la fin de février, par rapport à un sommet de 4,80 % au début de l’année, alors que les investisseurs recherchaient des valeurs refuges en raison de la menace de droits de douane et des répercussions négatives potentielles sur l’économie.

• La principale menace pour les investisseurs en titres à revenu fixe serait une hausse surprise de l’inflation causée par des politiques commerciales défavorables, mais cette pression à la hausse pourrait être compensée par des conditions de croissance plus faible.

• Nous nous attendons à ce que les obligations procurent au moins des rendements proches des taux nominaux, soit aux alentours de 5 %, au cours de la prochaine année, mais dans un contexte de plus grande divergence entre les marchés obligataires en raison de leurs perspectives économiques inégales.

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