Canada’s economy started 2024 strongly but softened slightly as the year progressed, with goods and services both slowing along with some offsetting improvement in mining and petroleum output.
Positive U.S. stock performance was driven by better-than-expected earnings growth and economic optimism tied to Republican success in the November elections.
While European economic growth continues to be anemic, financial markets in Europe and elsewhere are gaining due largely to improving U.S. growth and expectations that inflation is on the wane.
Looking to 2025, the macroeconomic environment has become more challenging for Asian equities after the U.S. elections.
More recently, we have started to see investors move assets back into China, which has been the best performing country since the central government announced an economic-stimulus package at the end of September.
Executive summary
Investors are enthused by a combination of moderating inflation, falling interest rates and Trump’s election victory, which signals the potential for more U.S. growth, lower taxes and less regulation. Stocks climbed to record levels as a result. While valuation risk is mostly concentrated in U.S. large-cap growth stocks, many global equity markets still offer attractive return potential.
Economy
The economy has stabilized in recent months as inflation concerns moderate and headwinds created by higher borrowing costs fade amid interest-rate cuts.
Fixed Income
We think bonds are appropriately priced in most major sovereign-bond markets except Japan, with return potential ranging from low single digits to mid single digits, and the greatest return potential being in U.S. Treasuries.
Equity markets
Global equities delivered impressive gains in the past year with the strongest returns generated by U.S. megacap technology stocks, but gains began to broaden in the summer as other areas posted strong returns.